Tuesday, September 07, 2010

The "will-be-able-to" index for media releases

It is amazing how many mobile banking articles announce intentions rather than achievements. I read a lot of articles especially with reference to mobile banking solutions and I am convinced that this a trend that we see more in our industry than anywhere else.

Take for example the following recent article on a mobile banking service to be launched in India (read here). Careful scrutiny of the article will show that the word "will" has been used seven times in an article of three hundred and forty words. In other words 2.1% of the words are "will". I would propose that we define the "will-be-able-to" index as 21 basis points in this case. The higher this index is, the more speculative an article would be on what will happen in the future, rather than what is possible right now. It is my contention that the average index for our industry would be higher than most.

I believe that this is because of a combination of
a. projects being extremely difficult to do and
b. high excitement about what is possible.
This leads to a situation where statements are made about what will be (or better may be) available in future. One should take articles with a low "will-be-able-to" index more seriously.

1 comment:

Joel said...

Great post!

Boasts seem the most common currency in the mobile money world.

To paraphrase Henry David Thoreau, men rush toward true gold yet go prospecting farther and farther away from the true lead, and are most unfortunate when they think themselves most successful.