New predictions on Contactless deployments

With the recent launch of the Nokia 6216 Handset, I thought that it would be interesting to look at the prediction of NFC again. According to all accounts it seems as if this is a cool handset that comes with all the features that one would want in a phone. Also (most importantly) the phone implemented the (possibly industry standard) single wire protocol (SWP) entrenching the SIM card as the source of identity.

So now that the phones are available, we should start seeing more deployments, and less trails and pilots, or will we?

I thought I should look at some of the predictions that experts and specialists are making of NFC. What follows is a random selection of predictions (With the date when the prediction was made):

• Aug 2006 Technology Review published by MIT predicts that 50% of new phones shipped in 2011 will be NFC enabled
• Sept 2006 ABI research predicts that 450 million new phones in 2011 will be NFC enabled. This represents about 30% of the phones to be shipped in that year.
  
• Nov 2008 The GSMA predicts first commercial deployments during latter part of 2009
  
• Feb 2009 Informa's prediction is that 10% of phones will by NFC enabled by 2013
• Sept 2009 Junper predict that the NFC market will be $30 billion by 2012 (In the same report the prediction for MMMT is $200 billion)
• Oct 2009 Venyon CEO predicts the first mainstream production deployments in 2010

I wonder if there is a trend here somewhere?